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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."