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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.